Global

The this was a gloomy year for the house prices, according to the Guide of Global last Property investigation of time collection of house price publicly available for the year 2008. And seen of a global perspective, the decrease always accelerates.

The collapse of the markets of lodging of the world can be seen of three points of view, and unfortunately, all reinforce the bad new one.

During 2008, the momentum descendant price has accelerated, as in comparison of 2007.
Only 2 countries saw the positive momentum in 2008 (a price movement of house slower descendant than the last year, or the rising movement quicker), while 28 countries saw their lodging to damage momentum of the market, in comparison of the preceding year. The two countries with a positive momentum were Germany and Swiss.

During 2008, the house prices fell in most of the countries.
During 2008 only 8 of 32 countries saw the house prices rise, after the adjustment for the inflation, while 20 countries tested the price falls of house.

By opposition, during the year 2007, the decrease began just, and only 6 countries saw the house prices fall, while 24 countries saw the house prices rise (all faces inflation tailored)

The a lot of houses price falls during 2008 were extremely harsh. The countries with the price falls of house of more than 10% during 2008 were Latvia (Riga) (37%), Lithuania (Vilnius) (27%), the United States (20%), the United Kingdom (18%), Iceland (16%), Ireland (12%), and the Ukraine (Kiev) (12%) (all faces inflation tailored).

During the final quarter (Q4) of 2008, the price momentum descendant has accelerated significantly, as in comparison of Q3, suggesting that the position damages itself.

During 2008 the final quarter, 9 countries saw the price falls of house of 5% or more during just this quarter. Evaluer of the decreases of more than 10% during this only quarter arrived in three countries - to Latvia (Riga), that saw the price falls of 15%, to Ukraine (Kiev) (13%), and in Hong Kong (15%). The other countries with Q4 falls of house price of 5% and, included on the UAE (8%), Lithuania (7%), Iceland (7%), Singapore (6%), Bulgaria (5%), and the United Kingdom (5%) (all faces inflation tailored, except UAE).

These evaluate falls were a lot bigger ones than during the preceding quarter, Q3. During this preceding quarter, only two countries tested the falls of house price (tailored inflation) of 5% or more, and no countries tested the falls of house price of more than 10%.


The INVESTIGATION REGIONALE BY THE GLOBAL GUIDE OF PROPRIETE

Europe has major problems
The Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania suffered the price more hard grave in the nominal and true terms. In Riga, Latvia, the average price of apartments of typical norm has dived 37% during 2008. The prices brought down to Latvia since late 2007, after a remarkable increase of about 70% in 2006. The decline more alarming has intervened in the fourth quarter, when the prices declined by 15%, the quarterly decrease the craggiest one in the true terms in any country. These price falls were released by the increased interest rate, and by the rules of tightened credit that Latvia imposed in 2007.

The average prices of apartments in Vilnius, Lithuania, fallen by 27% during 2008. The house prices began the slowdown in the environment of-2007, and crashed in year beginning 2008.

Lodge prices in the United Kingdom fell by 18% in 2008. Although the interest rate of hypotha¨que have fallen lightly, to 4.48% in December 2008, the number of approvals of loan for the house purchases fell 58% in 2008.

There is serious boredom to Iceland (the price fall of house of 16% during 2008), Ireland (12%), Ukraine (12%), Malta (9%), Portugal (8%), France (8%) Finland (7%), Norway (6%) and in Spain (6%).

Misfortunes of North America
In the United States, the financial global crisis center, in 2008 prices of house fell 20% according to the price index of house of Case shiller, that underlines urban sectors. The faces of OFHEO and FHFB, that are associated with Fannie Mae and the loans of Mac of Freddie and lost a little the credibility, suggest a smaller decline of 6% and 3% respectively, during 2008. The government United States approved recently one $ 787 billion packet of economical stimulus, of which $275 billions will be allocated to help the market of distressing lodging.

Canada a lot of less was affected that the United States.

The Pacific directs down below
Australia and New Zedlande saw the price declines of house during 2008, of 7% and 8% respectively.

Asia longer more isolated
The lodging markets were not isolated in Asia. The Singapore, Hong Kong and Philippine recorded the price falls of house during 2008.

Singapore prices residential private have fallen 9% during 2008, in the constraste splitting to the 26% price increase of test during 2007. Economical boredoms of the countries in the process of development unfavorably affected the exportations of Singapore, and during 2008, go out in the manufacture sector, notably of electronics, precision organizing of the and the chemical products, shrunken by 10.7%. The Singapore was officially in the recession in Q3 2008.

Hong Kong was hit poorly by the crisis. The house prices were down below by an average of 6% in 2008. But during the last quarter, Hong Kong tested a harsh decline in the prices of 14%.

In Makati, the Philippine, price of condominium of 3 essential bedrooms fell by 2% during 2008, after a 11% increase of the prices during 2007. Nevertheless the construction of haut-hausse buildings residential continue, with student of stock of condominium residential by 7% during 2008, according to the Philippine Minors.

Japan recorded the price increases of condominium of modest Tokyo of 1.2% during 2008. On the other hand, the earth prices to Japan six major cities fell by 6% there-o-there to September-2008.

In Shanghai, China, the price increases of house slowed down to 5% there-o-there of here the end of 2008, after peaking to 30% there-o-there to May 2008. Nevertheless Shanghai goes in all probability to be a not very exceptional, and the Agency of press of Xinhua retrieved the price declines of house in 70 major cities during 2008. Shenzhen suffered the fall the more lasts, with the prices down below by 18% during 2008

UAE on the trembling ground
In Dubai, UAE, despite the deserted global picture, saw the surprisingly big price increases of residence of 41% during 2008. Nevertheless during the final quarter of the year, the prices fell by 8% in the nominal terms. This decrease is attributable to tightening strongly ready criteria, an increase in the interest rate, the technical unemployed placements multiples, and the alarms among the buyers.


Anticipation: No restoration in 2009
The history suggests that in an accident, a lodging markets take a lot of years of the year maximum to the full restoration. Being given this and pessimistic anticipation of IMF for the global economy, no true restoration is probable in the markets of global lodging this year.

The IMF predicted that the world-wide economy will grow by 0.5% in 2009, the low level in 60 years. THE PIB in the advanced economies is counted to decline by 2% during 2009. The United Kingdom and Japan will be hit the fort. The production in the United Kingdom can contract by 2.8%, while Japan can fall by 2.6%.

The growth in the emerging economies is counted to slow down to 3.3% in 2009, at the bottom of 6.3% in 2008. Development Asia is foreseen for less to be affected it, with the growth of 5.5%. The economy of China is predicted growing by 6.7% in 2009, but this is a substantial decline of 9% growth during 2008.

We cannot be optimistic for five reasons:
aec The Evaluations clearly always remain stretched in most of the countries, in the terms of proportions price/rent.
aec The economical growth slows down or the negative one in a lot of countries, that is negative for the lodging values.
aec There is not sign that the banks become more to do to lend.
aec The unprecedented nature of the collapse of the financial system added strong to difficulties does the facing the markets of lodging of the world.
aec Some national governments test the difficulty in the refinancement their national debt, putting their changes under the pressure. The change instability goes in all probability to worsen the problems of sector of lodging in the countries where a lot of loans were gone out in a mottos.

The new positive one are that the government United States and several of others act with the vigor, as has the IMF. Nevertheless, there is a road lasts long forward.


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