Weather Forecast

Do you think that better to foresee time demands a degree in the meteorology? Maybe a degree in the analysis statistics would be more serviable. Consider this to follow the new manner to foresee the time with more of precision and less than knowledge.

Friday, February 2, 2007 - the City of Canon, Colorado. I let my City of Daily Canon enter Records porch when it arrived, to about 3 of the afternoon. I opened the newspaper to the page with the forecast, wondering how it this of cold one would be the following day.

The paper foresaw a high temperature was 13 degrees Fahrenheit. I knew that this was the too low manner. The anticipations to the television and on Internet said that we would attain 23 or 27 degrees the following day. I knew that they were also too low, and I said that my this of woman would be in the years 30 at least. The high true temperature the next day was 53 degrees Fahrenheit.

No, that is not a typing error. The various time foresees of the "experts" were of by as much as 40 degrees - and that was for an anticipation of 24 simple hours. How could they if be moved away from? And how can-j' to be better than the to foresee the time?

I cannot reply to the first question. The time here more impredvisible than in most of the places. Also, maybe the meteorologists follow model there data processing also servilement, even when their experience and the intuition say for them to adjust the anticipation.

Nevertheless, I can reply to the second question. My assumption was more near because the pronostiqueurs were so coherent in the manner they did their errors. Around this time, I recall me in cash something as 15 of 20 days when all the various forecasts predicted a high temperature that was 5 degrees or more more more too lower. All I needed to do was takes the highest anticipation of temperature and adds five degrees.

A New Time Foresees the Model

The consistency in their errors was the key to my success. They did not foresee so high a day and too low the after. They were wrong in the same many and many manners times.

Are the errors as coherent in the somewhere else country? Who could be determined by looks at statistics. Verify the high anticipation and low levels for the last one 365 days, and verify the true temperatures for these days. See what the foreseen probabilities of rain or of snow were, and which arrived in fact.

Suppose that last one 24 times a pronostiqueur predicted a 50% chance of rain, it pleased in does 18 times. It can have the better data, but it can be too conservative in how it uses it. Suppose that this was not a blow of bowl - that can be determined while doing more of analysis statistics. Not you anything could know to foresee time and furnish an anticipation more specifies simply while saying "A 75% chance of rain tomorrow" every time it said than there was a 50% chance, just?

That is the basis for this new provident model. First to muster the news statistics on the anticipations of several provident times of the services or meteorologists. Compare this to the true time that arrived, and look for any consistencies in the inaccuracies. Then you create a computer program. As you enter each of these anticipations in him, they are tailored for the tendencies known. The result is a preciser anticipation.

If the Pronostiqueur ONE managed on the the last year to foresee a top that does in average 4 degrees on the true top, the computer adjusts for that. The more artificial analysis could show to this B of Pronostiqueur uniformly predicts a higher probability of rain than there is in the fall, but a lower probability of rain than it there in fact has in the spring. The computer can take this in the account. At last, it can work better if the tailored anticipations of three or more of sources then are done in average.

It there really has not any need of knowledge does not import what to all of the time foresees. This is based on the idea that even when the experts have all the better knowledge and the better data, they apply it sometimes inexactly, and do if in the coherent manners. Do not be astonished if some television canals are ridded of their meteorologists and take advantage of this new time foresees the idea.

"Now your electronic forecast, of our Analysis statistics our Meteorological Machine".